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One would not agree with all his points: two that the reviewer objected to were "an unimplemented solution is a poor solution" and the statement " 'The Limits of Growth' did not predict"!

The author is rather sententious, very much overworks the word "wise" and has also not been well served by his publisher. A price of? However, despite these drawbacks, it is worth buying if only to check periodically one's own group's behaviour. The forecasting techniques available have increased both in number and com- plexity, so now is the time for a book to help both OR workers and managers to choose the most appropriate technique.

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It is principally aimed at managers, therefore you would expect a simple approach to the techniques. They introduce forecasting gently in the first two chapters by discussing the role of forecasting in a firm, stressing, quite rightly, that accuracy is not the sole criterion. They do not mention, however, that a graph can provide the manager with useful information.

They then proceed to develop all the techniques, but in most cases they cannot describe them sufficiently. The smoothing techniques, regression techniques and adaptive filtering, they prefer the latter , however, are well described via worked examples.

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They give a basic introduction to Box-Jenkins, but for most of the techniques the "manager" must look up the references provided. Since the book is intended for the U. These are: 1 time horizon, 2 pattern of data e. The applicability is divided into a the time required to make a forecast and b the easiness to understand and interpret the results.

The forecasting techniques are listed across the top. For example, if the manager has a short-term forecast to prepare he would look up in the table and find that the quickest method to prepare a forecast is simple exponential smoothing.

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Under exponential smoothing he will find a worked example explaining how to use this technique or references to explore further. However, only 70 per cent of the forecasting techniques in the table actually appear in the index under the same name.

Data Sets from "Forecasting: Methods and Applications" by Makridakis, Wheelwright & Hyndman (1998)

This will provide some confusion! In comparison with another table it is much more detailed than that produced by Chambers et al. One aspect seemed curious. If the manager knew he had an immediate term, non-correlated, horizontal pattern of data, the book advises the use of Inventory Control or Mathematical Programming. Mathematical Programming is not mentioned in the index and the one page headed "Inventory Control Theory" exhorts the reader to look elsewhere.

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It also contains the sentence, "Inventory Control shifts the burden It could be phrased better. I find the book falls between two stools. It is too advanced for general management and yet not advanced enough for OR. I would advise people beginning forecasting to read the book because it is readable and enjoyable and discusses the practical aspects and uses of forecasting, rather than the individual techniques. REID A comparison of forecasting techniques on economic time series.

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Large time series dataset

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